The SNP’s problem with wimmin

One of the burdz first posts  raised concerns about the Scottish Parliament’s regression on gender equality in its representation.  The publication of the SNP‘s regional list rankings provides an opportunity to consider the issue afresh.   Especially as the issue of securing women’s votes appears to be exercising the party somewhat.

It’s not good news, for the SNP nor the Parliament.

I’ve attempted to analyse how many women MSPs will be elected for the SNP, based on results at their nadir in the 2003 election and their high point in 2007.  It’s not an exact science, and is based on all sorts of currently unknown ponderables, such as the shift of some SNP constituencies across regional boundaries and the holding of first past the post seats or even winning new ones, so I may be out by the odd MSP.

However, if the SNP takes the same number of constituency and regional seats in 2011 as it did in 2003 it is likely to have only 8 women MSPs, from a total of 27.  That would be 2 less than it actually achieved in 2003, resulting in less than 30% of its group being women.

If the SNP wins 47 seats next year, repeating its triumph in 2007, then it will have 14 women MSPs:  exactly the same as it has now.  A few current women MSPs will lose but there will be new ones elected to compensate.  And still, less than 30% will be women.  Anything less than 47 and the number of women will undoubtedly reduce, as they are in the most vulnerable ranking positions. 

It’s fair to assume that the SNP will not be contributing to any reversal in the downward trend on gender equality at Holyrood. 

There are a few bright notes.  Well done South of Scotland and all those rural conservative (sic) constituencies and members who ranked so many women so highly.  On a good day, 4 will be returned and even on a bad one, 2 existing women MSPs will be returned.  And if Tricia Marwick holds her Central Fife constituency, Mid Scotland and Fife looks likely to return an additional woman MSP.   Highland, though, continues its dismal record and will return no women MSPs no matter how good the result.  Central Scotland will return one woman less, as might the West of Scotland.  Women top the list in only 2 out of 7 regions. 

The burd believes firmly that Scotland’s Parliament should be representative of its population.  But does it matter to the SNP’s potential electoral fortunes?

Probably.  At the end of July, Jennifer Dempsie, a former Scottish Government Special Advisor, considered the gender imbalance in the SNP’s vote in an article in Scotland on Sunday.  She put forward several suggestions for addressing this, of which increasing the number of women MSPs was one.   One part of her suggested formula has already been cast aside, though it is not necessarily fatal to a strategy to increase the number of women voting SNP in 2011.   Jennifer rightly pointed out that there is no single magic bullet to resolving this conundrum: a combination of actions is required, but the number of women MSPs is probably the most visual indicator of a party that takes gender seriously.  

The SNP’s failure to tackle the issue – again – for the 2011 elections has created a wholly unnecessary obstacle to closing the gender gap in voter base.   It might also have much more serious consequences.  Summer polls combined with the inherent difficulty of being an incumbent administration point to an uphill struggle to secure a second term in government.   Not taking the opportunity to increase the number of women MSPs could just have made it steeper still.

All the fun of the Holyrood fair

Roll up!  Roll up for all the fun of the Holyrood fair.  What thrills and spills can we expect in this, the last year of this parliamentary term? 

There’s the budget bingo of course, but there will be few big prizes up for grabs this year.  Not even John Swinney will be able to get excited by the numbers on his card: expect the UK Government to have bagged the snowball  for themselves. 

There will, though, be plenty of action on the dodgems with MSPs continuing to crash their way through the Alcohol etc (Scotland) bill and the three opposition parties ganging up to bump the SNP, until they give up on minimum pricing. 

Local government committee members will be lining up to throw wet sponges (and possibly worse) at Right to Buy as it finds itself in the stocks of the Housing (Scotland) bill.   With the abolition of this, one of the last remaining totems of Thatcherism no one will surely miss the chance to score highly.

Other than that, the prospects for legislative fireworks are few.  The Children’s Hearing (Scotland) bill could have, should have shaken up our prized child welfare system and set it fair for the next 50 years.  But the bill involves largely procedural and structural reform and will leave a pretty dry and unpalatable taste in the mouth.  Just like candyfloss.

But there are plenty of inquiries to get our teeth into.  We might be pleasantly surprised by the economy committee’s birl on the big wheel that is our enterprise agency and the success (or failure?) of recent reforms.  As long as they don’t get stuck at the top and fixated by the big salaries, there might be some interesting findings.  Or there again, maybe not.

The finance committee’s inquiry into preventative spending will definitely prove to be a shooting gallery.  Everyone is taking aim, confident they know how to hit the targets of early intervention and spend to save but they will all be disappointed when the ducks fail to fall over.  Pot shots there will be aplenty;  few will score a bullseye.

The health committee’s inquiry into out-of-hours healthcare provision in rural areas will turn into a visit to the haunted house.  Quite simply it doesn’t exist.  We can believe all we like, we might occasionally glimpse an apparition of a rural doctor in the middle of the night, but frankly it is no longer for real.

And of course, we will have the roller coaster of FMQs to look forward to every week.  Can we expect a killer ride for the new season?  That will hurtle us up and down the course of political rhetoric, wit and bombast at breakneck speed?  That will thrill us to the core of our being and leave us definitely shaken not stirred?   Probably not.  Knowing our luck, it will turn out to be a far more tame and predictable ride on the giant teacups.

Aren’t we missing something?

Well, that’s summer well and truly over.  The last of the schools go back next week (Dumfries and Galloway what are you playing at?  8 weeks???)

For most of us the holidays are but a distant memory and a faded tan.  Those of us who staycationed spent most of it in wellies. 

Oh, and of course, the nights are fair drawin’ in.   But something’s missing from the scene setting for autumn, though it took me a wee while to work out what.

Our MSPs aren’t back from recess until 8 September (officially).  Which means they will have 9, nearly 10 weeks away from Holyrood.  Nice huh?

This is longer than normal:  usually they are back behind their shiny desks by the very first week in September, ready to roll for the new parliamentary session.  So why the extra week, in fact almost two weeks away?

I mean, it’s not as if there isn’t stuff to be getting on with.  The budget….. a log jam of bills at Stages 1 and 2….. the Lockerbie debacle…… a host of committee inquiries ready to get underway.   Don’t they think they could have done with more time this session, not less, given that the country is about to be rocked by the biggest financial cuts to the public sector this side of devolution?    I’m not at all suggesting, as some lazy journalists do, that recess equals holiday.  I know most work hard over the recess in their constituencies.  And an earlier post  indicates just how hard some will have been working as self-preservation instincts kick in.  But don’t they think that their constituents might prefer them to be focused on finding solutions to the big issues of the day at Holyrood than bounding around opening summer fetes, holding surgeries and scattering local media releases? 

MSPs – get back to Holyrood, your country needs you.  Which might be the one and only time anyone ever tells you that.