Recent polls, partial answers and missing questions

Recent polls conducted by YouGov and Ipsos Mori appear to show good news for the SNP, with them breathing down Labour’s neck.  Strangely though the SNP’s release doesn’t actually tell us which election nor what questions the findings relate to.

Because the YouGov poll was conducted privately for the SNP, you won’t find the results on its website.  Fortunately, the IPSOS Mori findings are available publicly.  And it would appear that both polls relate to voting intentions for the Holyrood elections next May. 

The IPSOS Mori finding of Labour 37, SNP 34 relates to intentions on the constituency vote in 2011.  Intentions on the regional list vote are also given:  38% of participants say they intend to vote for Labour, 28% for the SNP, with 12% each for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats and 5% for the Scottish Greens. 

So we can probably assume that the YouGov finding also relates to the Holyrood constituency vote.   And all in all, that does appear to be promising news for the SNP and for their many MSPs defending slim majorities in 2011. 

But there is a long way to go.  And an awful lot of politics to be played out before we get to May.  Amateur psephology in the months ahead will be a whole lot easier if poll findings are reported in their totality.  And we actually know what people are being asked.   If not, we’ll be entitled to ask what it is the parties might be trying to hide.

One thought on “Recent polls, partial answers and missing questions

  1. Hi Kate,

    Just a point in the figures: The SNP list vote on IPSOS Mori poll was 29% not 28%.

    Also noted that it is interesting that the Westminster poll rating of the SNP is now at 30% (29% among those certain to vote), while that for the Lib Dems is down 7% to 13%. Significant in that it appears it is the SNP and not labour that is benefiting from the swing away from the Lib Dems. Confirms what I am hearing anecdotally here.

    All the best

    Paul.

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