#sp11 Regions revisited – Glasgow

Well, we finish on a damp squib.  There’s not a lot to disagree with in Jeff’s final analysis of this region over at Better Nation.  So I’ll save you any pain for very little gain and simply say…

I agree.  With all the constituency predictions. Though interestingly, using the ICM poll (which is now pretty out of date but not that wide of the mark), ScotlandVotes predicts that Glasgow Southside will fall to Labour.  On this occasion, we’re right and they’re wrong.  The SNP will hold this seat with Nicola Sturgeon returning.  But other than that, Glasgow will be its usual sea of red.

So far, it’s eight for Labour and one for the SNP.  Just like last time.  Just as Jeff said.

On the list seats, the SNP will dominate as it has in previous elections, taking four, which will see not one but two BEM MSPs entering the Scottish Parliament.  Hurrah!  The Lib Dems will fail to return a list member for the first time since 1999 and hell mend them, for dumping Robert Brown.  The Conservatives will scrape one home with Ruth Davidson but I reckon their vote is going to plummet in regions like Glasgow so it will be a scrape rather than a mid table election, as Jeff indicates.

Patrick Harvie will get back for the Greens but it will not be as comfortable as the Scottish Greens seem to think and I reckon that the SSP and Gorgeous George – for Respect or Solidarity or whatever – will run them close.  Glasgow does gallus like no one else and it likes its celebrities to wear their hang ups on their sleeve.  George has the chutzpah, the well cut suit, the anti-establishment swagger and the patter to appeal to a significant section of the electorate.  But it won’t quite be enough.

So far so good, but what of the last seat?  It will go to Labour, for the reasons Jeff lays out.  But since starting this little game, I’ve done a wee bit of digging.  And actually, it’s a bit of a fallacy that Labour’s support transfers on the regional vote.  Someone, somewhere on a comment thread pointed this out and I was intrigued and had a wee bit look and think.  They were right, of course.  So taking into account that Labour often wins the regional vote out of each constituency in Glasgow combined with the increased votes/divisor calculation, they will take this seventh seat.  And yay, another BEM MSP is elected.

So, that’s , four SNP, one Conservative, one Green and one Labour.  Just as Jeff said.

Which makes our final tally a dead heat.  Not a jot of difference to be found, except for maybe the actual placings on the list.  Labour will elect nine MSPs from Glasgow, the SNP five, the Conservatives one and the Scottish Greens one.

There we’re done, only not quite.  I’ve still to do my round up and in bowling along, I’ve realised I’ve misplaced a Highlands and Islands seat so that will need to be sorted.  And looking at my tally so far, I seem to have predicted light for Labour.  I know, scary isn’t it?  So might have to have another wee look at some of those predictions and revise.

Just don’t expect fancy stuff like over at Better Nation.  Charts and colour, whatever next?!

Laters though.  The garden beckons…

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  1. Pingback: #sp11 Regions revisited – the totaliser « A Burdz Eye View

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