Trailing them all the way to the finish line, anything Jeff and Malc at Better Nation can do, the burd can do better.
Only not. It must be a boy thing but there will be nae glossy, coloured tables on this blog. Ye’ll get yer round-up plain and simple and like it.
So, eight regions:
I used the ICM poll and stuck to my task, ignoring the newcomers, and not having my own predictor to play with, used ScotlandVotes. If you’ve not visited Weber Shandwick’s election website, do. It’s a great resource and there’s great fun to be had playing with the predictor.
A wee mention too for the Scottish Politics website, which is by far and away the most useful compendium of election results for Holyrood, Westminster and councils. It hasn’t been updated in a while which is a shame and I hope it hasn’t run out of steam due to a lack of funding. There is everything the political anorak needs here, and more. I used the site to compare and contrast previous results against the poll ratings and current predictions.
Anyway, the scores on the burdz doors were as follows:
|H & I||North East||Lothians||M Sco & Fife||West||Central||South||Glasgow|
I had thought I’d mislaid a Highlands and Islands seat but it turns out they just have 15 in total. Sometimes I’m not the brightest burd in the box….
But never mind the breakdown, what of the totals?
To be helpful, I’ve included the 2007 results to show the change. And to try to prevent guffawing or alternately, the ire of the Nats – please remember this was based on the ICM poll and look, ScotlandVotes predictor suggests I’ve actually called it light for Labour. Of course, what with the tightening polls, I’ll have to have another go at this (at the totals anyhow). But my earlier analysis that this election is all about the big two, with everyone else being squeezed on the margins, holds true.
And yes, the Lib Dems seem to be in meltdown with both the SNP and Labour picking off constituency seats. But note also that the Conservatives will be struggling to hold their ground. Any slippage at all surely spells the end for Annabel Goldie. I am probably being generous to the Scottish Greens, but think they could pull off an extra seat even on 4 – 5% share of the vote, as that national average is likely to rise steeply in regions like the Lothians.
There will indeed be a lot of new faces, courtesy of defeats and retirements, which is a very good thing. As for gender balance, well I think the boys at Better Nation have been too generous. If we get 35% of MSPs being women, I’ll buy them cake/beer. Because that would be a result against the best efforts of the parties, and definitely something worth celebrating.
So, regions to watch then? With shifting and tightening polls, which areas are likely to see seats continue to change hands right up until polling day? The ones I said right at the start actually – Mid Scotland and Fife and South of Scotland, but also Lothians and Highlands and Islands. It all really depends on two poll trends: whether the SNP can keep up its charge on Labour and how low can the Liberal Democrats go?
Thank you Malc and Jeff at Better Nation, and to everyone who has commented on these posts – it has been fun. More to come!