The Big Count: bellweathers, seats to watch and wildcards

Because it’s all going to take a while to get going tonight – earliest results predicted for around 2am – the burd, ever thoughtful has provided a couple of posts to while away the hours.  This one – a joint one no less – from me and Graeme Downie.  Graeme is even more of an election junkie than the burd, and that is saying something.

This is the quick version, simply listing our bellweathers:  the results that will tell us which way the electoral winds are blowing;  the seats to watch:  those that have been target marginals and will provide the night’s excitement;  and the wildcards – the ones that if they happen will provide us with our 2011 Portillo moments.

Of course, the situation is complicated somewhat by the likes of Fife, Clackmannanshire and Stirling and others not starting to count until Friday morning.  So we won’t have a complete picture until teatime tomorrow.  Yep it’s a marathon not a sprint…

For anyone staying the course, I will be live blogging along with the other Better Nation team members through the night.  Please do join us!

Coming up shortly, is Graeme’s detailed analysis, outlining why and how and whom these seats he predicts will fall to.  Well worth treating as a compendium companion and dipping in and out of.

Our bellweathers:

Graeme’s are – Cumbernauld and Kilsyth;  Dundee City East;  Glasgow Kelvin;  North East Fife; Perthshire South; Edinburgh Western; Glasgow Southside; Cunningham North;

The Burdz are – East Kilbride (likely to be one of first to declare, will give us an idea of swings going on between Labour and the SNP);  Orkney (another early declaration and will tell us just how low the Lib Dem vote is likely to go);  Almond Valley (Labour’s number one target seat in terms of swing required, will tell us how close their challenge is likely to be);  Glasgow Pollok (these are the kind of seats where Labour normally weighs its vote but how far can the SNP close the gap?);  Perthshire South (this is the kind of seat the SNP should hold comfortably but by how big a margin?)

Our seats to watch:

Graeme’s are:  Eastwood;  Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley;  Galloway and West Dumfries;  Dumfriesshire;  Linlithgow;  Midlothian South;  Edinburgh Southern;  Edinburgh Central;  Edinburgh Eastern;  Almond Valley;  Dunfermline;  Stirling;  Aberdeen South and North Kincardine;  Caithness, Sutherland and Ross; Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch;  Western Isles;  Argyll and Bute;  Airdrie & Shotts; Aberdeen Central;  Clydesdale;  Clackmannanshire and Dunblane;  Dumbarton

The Burdz are: Glasgow Southside;  Cunningham North;  Eastwood;  Renfrewshire North;  Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley; Galloway and West Dumfries; Dumfriesshire ; Midlothian South; Edinburgh Southern; Edinburgh Central; Dunfermline; Stirling; Dundee City West;  Aberdeen south and North Kincardine; Caithness, Sutherland and Ross; Argyll and Bute; Airdrie and Shotts;  Falkirk East;  Linlithgow; Aberdeen Central

Graeme’s wildcard – Shetland

The Burdz – Edinburgh Western

3 thoughts on “The Big Count: bellweathers, seats to watch and wildcards

  1. Edinburgh Western goes SNP. 12% swing there!

  2. I don’t have a scooby what”ll happen but I do think that the number of Labour voters who are “no-shows” compared to last time will make the difference between narrow defeat and embarrassment.

    On the basis of personal interest (the SNP candidate was there to greet me at the Polling Station this morning) I will go for Glasgow Cathcart and cheerio Charlie Cheque.

    1,800 notional majority lost on a recount due to anti-GCC sentiment.

    I’m an optimist.

  3. I will be about for the counts for Dumbarton and Clydebank and Milngavie, should be an interesting night!

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