Why Guido was wrong about Gordon

Today, I am mostly blogging elsewhere – at the wonderful Bella Caledonia actually. It’s a big, thoughtful (well I think so!) piece on how twelve years of devolution have failed children but that by investing in early years, we can create a better future for them. 

Feel free to take your coffee and wander over there for a read.  And have a good look at everything else on offer:  these folks are the kind of thinkers and articulates I want to be when I grow up.

So over there you get meaty, here you get gossipy….

Forgive me, for inflicting Guido Fawkes on you, but this has annoyed me for a week.  He dropped one of his little bombs that Gordon Brown’s resignation as an MP was imminent – posted on 4 April, later that week apparently – and that he would be going to the Lords, which would allow the by-election to be held on 5 May.  McTwitter rebounded the rumour, prompting the haloed Sarah to tweet furiously that it was rot.

As anyone with an inkling of knowledge about Scottish politics would know.  Guido might know his Westminster onions, but this was mince.

Why won’t it happen this side of 5 May?

  • because Gordon wouldn’t do anything to derail Scottish Labour’s campaign, or draw publicity and attention from it
  • because Labour has no reason to want to bury such a by-election – it would be a shoo-in for Labour surely, allowing Ed a big campaign to cut his teeth on
  • who runs campaigns in Scotland?  John Park.  And where is he right now?  Running the Scottish election campaign.
  • and it is he who is widely rumoured to be Gordon Brown’s handpicked successor – not much chance of him being a by-election candidate at the moment really

It doesn’t matter how disengaged Gordon is from humdrum politics these days, nor even if he and Iain Gray have so much as exchanged Christmas cards in recent months:  the ties that bind are the strongest.  Not just in Labour but the other parties too – would any of the SNP MPs choose this moment to resign their seats, even if the need was urgent?  No.

Gordon won’t resign before 5 May because he cares about Labour, and Scottish Labour, too much.   And he wants to see them back in power at Holyrood. 

Though that begs the question, why haven’t we seen him on the campaign trail yet?  Surely, Labour is going to bring its big guns into play at some point?