The future is coming on

I know it sounds ridiculous, but I’ve written a book.  And it’s going to be published soon, apparently, by the lovely Luath press as part of Gerry Hassan‘s Open Scotland series.  Or maybe they’ll pulp it, which would probably do us all a favour.

Titter all ye like; it won’t match my own embarrassed guffawing about it.

In the book wot I wrote about Scotland’s 20-somethings, I wanted to use the lyrics from Gorillaz’ seminal* noughties track, Clint Eastwood, as chapter headings but this is a big no-no – copyright fees for such borrowing are eye-watering.  So sue me now for doing it here, Messrs Albarn, Hewlett and Jones:  I have nothing you’d want anyway.

I should probably explain why this song’s lyrics struck a chord while collating data and information for *The Book*.  In fact, it didn’t take long for it to play on a loop in my head during the project, which was a tad annoying, given that I’d spent much of the preceding ten years removing it as an earworm.

The Big Yin was ten when Clint Eastwood was released, but it stayed in his most-played tracks throughout adolescence.  Its use in films, in sampling and covers throughout the decade ensured its longevity, as did each year of pre-pubescent and pubescent children awakening afresh to its potency.  It’s taken me until now to get it.  It’s not the technology nor the concept that has given it legs, but the lyrics, and especially the chorus.

And what has this pleasing meander got to do with anything?

On Friday, in what is now Gordon Brewer’s Big Debate on Radio Scotland, I was rounded upon for suggesting that younger generations were probably going to vote yes.  On cue, up popped two possibly-planted No-voting 19 year olds to dispel my theory, which Harry Donaldson of the GMB seized upon.  Never mind the polls – for once, apparently – here’s the evidence in front of us.  All two of them.

And for all there’s been much chatter about how this referendum campaign has enervated Scotland’s youth, much of it has focused on 16 and 17 year olds who will vote for the first time ever in September.  No one has had much to say about those aged 18 to 29 and their voting intentions.  Partly that’s the pollsters’ fault, because they have been all over the place in mapping this demographic’s voting intentions.  They have used different age definitions at various points and the weighting of poll samples of 18 to 24s and 25 to 34s can create such margins of error as to make findings meaningless.  Nor is there much evidence of a trend, of a forward march relentlessly towards one outcome or the other, so there have been few talking points.  Indeed, such is the volatility of their voting intentions, that far from being the Independence Generation, they are more like the Mebbes Aye Mebbes Naw one.

But that has changed a little in the last three months.  These tables take poll data from ICM, TNS-BMRB and Survation, the only companies to have surveyed in each of May, June and July:

 

 

ICM May - July polls

 

 

 

 

TNS BMRB May - July polls

 

 

 

 

Survation May - July polls

 

 

 

 

There’s no easy way of presenting disaggregated data – or at least, I’m not useful enough technically to do so.  But these three polls all suggest that to varying degrees, there is a softening of the no vote, a shift to yes and a rise in the number of don’t knows. Indeed, among 25 to 34s who are much more likely to vote than 18 to 24s, ICM and TNS-BMRB even have Yes as winning in most months.

I’ve included the 35 to 44s to show that here too, there is movement, though all pollsters suggest more of a roller coaster ride in voting intentions.

Effectively, the polls suggest that these voters are the key age demographic for the Yes campaign:  the closer we get to Referendum Day, the more the gap is closing between No and Yes and might even be opening up in some ages between Yes and No.  Moreover, there are still plenty of their votes to be won, with consistently more than a quarter saying they have yet to make up their minds.

These age groups are clearly the furrow to plough for Yes in the remaining forty days of the campaign. Yes needs to nail the myth and the fear that free university tuition would be threatened by independence.  It needs to get childcare back on the agenda, ignore those spouting millions and billions to talk it down and win the argument that free childcare is good for children, good for families and good for the economy (and isn’t on offer within the UK). It needs to emphasise how these young adults are the hardest hit by Westminster, especially if they are in work, and how key changes in tax and earnings policy in independent Scotland will benefit them in particular.  And it needs to do the vision thing, offering up independence as their one chance, their one opportunity at a better future.

This recent polling data suggests that younger adult voters in Scotland actually get this last, fundamental argument in the independence case.  The new poster campaign with its focus on “one opportunity” suggests Yes gets it too (though mixing the messaging dilutes its impact, as does the stark, male styling).

And this analysis suggests three things:  such a high level of undecideds among three key age groups means there is all to play for and that this referendum is not over yet;  given their lower propensity to actually vote, getting them out to vote on Referendum day is a challenge requiring precision planning;  Yes needs to win over as many of the undecideds as it can in all three age groups, to counter the much higher number of No voters in the over 55s in particular, who are also much more likely to vote.

While it might all come down to differential turnout on the day, there’s a message to be taken to the nation’s Grannies in particular.  Vote no because you think things are fine as they are, because at your time of life, you can’t be bothered with the change and you’d rather have the “devil you know” and you could well be consigning your grandchildren to a future they neither want nor have voted for.

That’s a stark and hard message for Yes to get across but it must find a way to hit home that those with the least to gain from independence could thwart the aspirations of those who will benefit the most.  20 and 30 somethings could help by initiating the inter-generational conversation: a wee blast of Clint Eastwood and especially, the chorus would be a good place to start:

I ain’t happy, I’m feeling glad
I got sunshine in a bag
I’m useless but not for long
The future is coming on
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoQYw49saqc

 

*seminal means making the Rolling Stone’s top 100 of the decade – it’s in there at 38.  My blog, my rules.

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Salmond v Darling: who won?

So, I went to bed last night somewhat discomfited.

The stress engendered by trying to watch the bloody thing in Scotland’s far-flung southern most corner hadn’t helped.  It might have been on ITV Border but it would seem there are two versions of this channel on Freeview.  Sadly, the folks appear to have the Cumbrian version.

The STV player crashed, indicating the level of interest in watching this debate all over the UK and no doubt, the world.  I even tried the pub next door but alas, the woman behind the bar didn’t know how to change the channel.  Frustrated at every turn, relying on twitter to gauge how it was all going was probably not wise.  By the time I arrived, the No side was crowing, the Yes side strangely muted.

So with only little more than half the debate to go, I finally got to settle down with my beer and popcorn in time for the First Minister’s cross exam of Alistair Darling.

Did my toes curl at the opening exchanges?  Yep.  Gathering all the online snippets and insider jibes of *he says, she says* didn’t seem appropriate or relevant. This was focusing on flotsam and jetsam and point scoring, no doubt leaving much of the audience of non-aligned and non-partisans in the dark.  Eek.

The section on the EU was better but surely the point wasn’t to get Darling to agree to remove the misinformation from the website but to agree with what the European President said? On the successful, independent country issue, well that was better, but surely Darling landed a few blows by getting some substantive points into his attempts to avoid answering the question?

Then it was Bernard’s and the audience’s turn.  It seemed that the No camp had prepared its questioners better.  Short, sharp and digging not just at the currency issue, but also having a pop at Alex Salmond personally.  But generally, thoughtful and often, heartfelt questions.  And if anyone can claim to have had a good debate, it’s Bernard.  His exam of both men was incisive and this made for the best segment.

My conclusion by bedtime?  It hadn’t been a great day at the office, as they say.  Alex Salmond could do miles better than this, surely.  I know, I’ve seen and heard him do better.  Trying to put myself in the shoes of all those undecided voters I keep encountering on the doorsteps, would the First Minister’s performance have propelled them further towards a Yes? Especially women, who largely want to vote yes but just don’t like that there are so many uncertainties and unanswered questions, particularly on economic matters? Frankly, I didn’t dare answer that one.

But what a difference the cold light of day makes.  I watched the whole debate this morning from start to finish.

On opening statements, it was positive versus negative.  Salmond won, hands down, setting out three areas he wanted independence to change for Scotland.  Darling slung some soundbites together and focused on what we can’t do and wouldn’t be allowed to do. It was no, not and never for Darling from start to finish.

The currency cross-exam and sections on it afterwards were uncomfortable but Salmond stuck to his key message – it’s my job to argue for what is best for Scotland.  And Darling got tied in knots when Bernard took over: on scoring points, Salmond actually won, subtly undermining Darling’s supposedly rock-solid reputation on fiscal management.

And Darling was often flippant throughout, dismissive of the Yes woman’s question about who subsidises who – never a good move on live telly – while Salmond was earnestly serious, calm and measured at every stage. He got across all the key messages for a Yes, on democracy, social justice and the economy:  Darling had little to offer in terms of what voting no actually means.

Then there’s the body language.  Coming out from behind the lectern to engage with the audience in the room and beyond was a good move for Alex Salmond.  At one point, Alistair Darling had actually turned his back on them and preferred only to engage with Bernard. And all that finger pointing.  At Salmond, at Bernard, at the audience.  Not good. Worse, he actually lost it at some points, hectoring and floundering and throwing out scare stats in equal measure. Meanwhile, Alex Salmond calmly set out the arguments for and was actually majestic on social justice issues.  Visibly angry at how ordinary people are suffering under Westminster austerity: many out there will have identifed with that.

Did Alex Salmond win it then?  No.  But he did among some of the key voting groups in this race to the referendum finish.

The 512 hardy souls who were polled by ICM immediately after the debate decided that Alistair Darling *won* 47% to 37%.  He clearly found favour among men, the over 55s and those living in Central Scotland, the Lothians, the Highlands and North East of Scotland.  Perhaps worryingly for the First Minister, only about two-thirds of those who had been yes before the debate or who were SNP voters think he won.

But only 4% of women thought Darling won; more in the 35 to 54 age group thought Salmond won; in Glasgow, the voters were almost evenly split on it. And among the undecideds generally? Overwhelmingly, whether they had been undecided before or still were after the debate, they thought Alex Salmond won. In fact, post-debate, an astonishing 40% of undecideds reckoned Alex Salmond won, compared to only 14% who believed that Alistair Darling did.

Who had the more appealing personality?  Men plumped for Darling, women overwhelmingly plumped for Salmond, as did voters in most parts of Scotland.

Who had the better arguments? On this, Darling emerges as a clear winner.  But again, not among women or undecided voters.

And on voting intentions in the referendum?  It would appear that what many thought of the debate made no difference to voting intentions.  Young voters 16 to 34 might have thought Darling won but as many of them intend to vote yes as vote no, while the opposite is true of the 35 to 54 age group.

And it might be small numbers, but more of the undecideds before the debate had shifted to yes than to no afterwards.

But given that over half of those undecided voters are still undecided, it’s clear that this debate didn’t provide anything like a game-changer.  No is still ahead and according to this poll and the general consensus, won the debate.  Yet, look below the waterline and Darling might not have had quite such a good debate as the pundits have opined, nor Salmond taken the *pounding* favoured by the headline writers.

Alex Salmond actually managed to close the gap in voting intentions – down to 6% between No and Yes – and in particular, close the gap among women and young adult voters.  Yes would win in Glasgow, Mid Scotland and Fife, Highlands and the North East and over a quarter of Labour and Lib Dem voters would vote Yes.

The strategy then appeared to work, in parts.  It was never designed to appeal to partisans like me – after all, my vote was won a long time ago.  And occasionally, it pays to remind myself – and indeed, ourselves – of this.  These debates aren’t about us, for us nor aimed at those of us who are already voting Yes but at all the others who can still be persuaded to in the six weeks that remain.  I think I’ll sleep better tonight realising that.

 

 

 

Women are wending their way to Yes

You’ll forgive me for having more than a passing interest in how women are going to vote in the referendum.  In the last two years, there has been a concerted effort – largely by women and largely by women from both Yes and No sides – to ensure women’s voices are heard in the debate.  You might wonder that we really are in the 21st Century but women have had to fight, call out and argue for their right to be represented in media discussions and speaker panels in the referendum debate.  But we are winning, even if falling somewhat short of equal representation.  Apparently, one women’s voice will always do, while often two or more of men’s is considered requisite.

Carolyn Leckie’s inspired idea to create a space for women who support independence in which they could engage with other like-minded women has borne remarkable fruit. The aim was not to create an echo chamber but a safe space which operated differently from traditional party and campaign structures, in which women could gather and importantly, invite other women to participate in. The focus throughout has been on listening to other women and giving them a space of their own in which to explore their thoughts and concerns on the referendum debate.  But let’s be honest, the point of what Carolyn and the other founding members of Women for Independence (of which I was one) created was also to enable and encourage more women in Scotland to vote Yes. 

That it has worked suggests that it was sorely needed. Because of Women for Independence, there are women involved in this debate, campaigning, speaking out, engaging and still listening to other women’s voice who have “never done this kind of thing before”. Women for Independence now has 1,200 individual members from all over Scotland, with over 40 local groups ranged all over the country.

And while our focus is on the campaign to win independence for Scotland for the next nine weeks, we won’t be going away on 19 September. The work will continue – hopefully with women from all parties and none, and from both sides of the constitutional debate – to ensure women’s rights and equality feature high up the agenda in post-referendum Scotland. Yup, that’s a threat and a promise.

Increasingly, Women for Independence is attracting women who did not start out voting yes. They have travelled to the conclusion that women in Scotland will be better off with independence either through a long and dissatisfying journey with the Labour party or over the arid landscape of two years of constitutional debate. Some of them started as No voters, most as undecideds. 

But don’t just take my word for it, look at the polls. 

Frankly, during this campaign, the polls have been all over the place. The differential in voting intentions being recorded by different pollsters and across polling periods is often so volatile that the only safe conclusion is “eh?”

There have been a lot of polls and very little can be said about them that tells us definitively what on earth is going on in the minds and intentions of the Scottish people. Though John Curtice does his best.

James Kelly at Scot Goes Pop! has done a sterling job, not only in keeping up with polling activity, but also in providing essential analysis. In particular, he’s tried to get to the crux of why the polls are still showing big leads for no when any of us out on the doorsteps know it’s a lot less clearcut than they suggest.

Looking only at ICM’s polling results in 2014 (from the surveys run for the Scotsman and Scotland on Sunday), two tentative conclusions can be reached.

ICM poll table 2014

First, the longer the debate continues and the more information they have, the less men seem to know.  Wasn’t it always thus?

ICM’s polling suggests that the closer we get to Referendum day, men are being pulled away from a previous yes voting intention and increasingly, don’t know how they will vote. The fact that they do appear to be moving to undecided means there is still hope: one in five of men’s votes is still up for grabs. Why anyone thinks excluding the don’t knows at this stage is a good idea is beyond me.  Every second voter I canvass is a genuine undecided either because they cannot make up their mind or simply haven’t thought about it.  Read that last bit again, Yes and No stalwarts, and weep.

Second, women are largely where they started the year, having been on a bit of a journey in the last few months. Having reached a low point of support for independence in May, women do now seem to be moving towards a yes vote.  And there are still plenty who have yet to make up their minds. ICM suggests that when they do, they are largely deciding to vote yes. Again, these undecideds are still genuinely undecided for the reasons outlined above. Few can be categorised as not voting because most I meet absolutely intend to do so. Once they’ve had a chance to think about it and get hold of information because they’ve not had anything much, is a frequent refrain. (Note to Yes and No folk – try harder!)

There are many factors at play, of course. But the visibility of a campaign working so enthusiastically at the grassroots to encourage more women to vote yes, will have made a contribution. When women who support independence get the chance to expound the benefits of independence to other, undecided women – benefits for themselves, their families, their communities and the country’s future – those messages resonate.

Moreover, the issues matter. Women have been most affected by Westminster’s cuts. They are concerned about the future of the welfare state and NHS in Scotland as they see the privatisation of the NHS South of the border. More and more women are realizing that only independence guarantees a fairer and more prosperous future for them and their families.

Last week, I met a woman in her thirties, who despite the draw of a warm, balmy summer evening, sat on a hard seat in a village hall for two hours and listened. I watched her throughout and she was listening hard to everything that was being said: her attention did not waver, not even for a minute. I spoke to her at the end and asked her why she had come.

With tears shining in her eyes, she replied that she wanted to make sure she was making the best choice for her children’s future. That how she voted really mattered and she wanted to make sure she got it right. She did not want her children to be denied a better future because she got her vote wrong. She has been undecided throughout, swinging from undecided to yes, back again and over to no, before landing up firmly back on the fence for the last month or so. Since then, she has immersed herself in the debate, in gathering and reading information, on turning out to meetings like the one I met her at, because she absolutely wants to make sure she is doing the right thing by her children. 

She’s finally made up her mind.  She’s voting yes.